Climate Change
Average Global Temperature is most likely to be 2.4 C above industrial levels
The world has been aware of the debate on climate change for decades. "Global climate disruption is the biggest threat to our future," AI Gore, former U.S. vice president in 1997, as he presents a speech on global warming and climate change. The focus of the international community on global warming has steadily risen along with the growing consensus among scientists and increasing coverage in the media. "Right now, we are facing a human-made disaster on a global scale. Our greatest threat in thousands of years. Climate change. If we don't take action, the collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon," Sir David Attenborough, broadcaster, and natural historian, speech at the 2018 UN Climate Change Conference, Katowice, Poland. This increased awareness and attention from society have led to many declaring that we are not in a 'climate emergency.'
Temperature Rises - Climate Change
Our Belief
Proven AI Models
51 billion tonnes of yearly greenhouse gas emissions stand between humanity and a climate disaster. But, according to Bill Gates in his book, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, we have just 30 years to reduce that number to zero.
Together with Bill, 97% of all climate scientists, and the 191 countries that signed the Paris agreement, we are on a mission to help avoid climate disaster. To do so, we believe technological transformation and innovation will be crucial and that entrepreneurs will drive this change. That is why we allocate capital, invest in and accelerate startups solving challenges related to climate change.
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“In a typical year, the world emits over 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases.” – Bill Gates in “How to avoid a climate disaster”
Climate Trend, Noise and Seasonality
Global Temperature records
How do we know that the global surface temperature rose between 0.6 and 0.9 degrees between 1906 and 2005? How do we know the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years?
The main types of questions that arise from examining time series can vary. They depend on the environmental context, but also on the data that have been gathered.
Pollution level, and prediction of other climate metrics
Where we describe the main features of the time series, such as is the series increasing or decreasing, or are there any seasonal patterns? (e.g. higher temperatures in summer and lower in winter). Where we predict future values of the time series from the current values, and also quantify the uncertainty in these predictions. where we detect when changes in the behavior of the time series have occurred, such as sudden drops in precipitation, or in pollution levels.
Sawtooth effect with seasonal effect
Start off by looking at data collected at Manua Loa; one of the five volcanoes that form the island of Hawaii. The observatory near the summit of the Mauna Loa volcano has been recording the amount of carbon dioxide in the air since 1958. This is one of the longest continuous recordings of direct measurements of CO2 and shows an increasing trend from year to year.
The basic formula to figure out time series predictions:
Time series (Xt) = Trend (mt) + Sesonal component (st) + Unexplained error (ϵt)
Site The Grid use of Power
The next five years power sector must have improvements
If the world is to avoid dangerous warming, the policy must develop tot tackle at least three fronts simultaneously: more efficiency, more renewables, and industrial-scale CCS. We are closing the gap. The power sector is intrinsically linked to governmental policies. Societal and political thinking and responses to climate change will consequently have a significant impact on how the power sector develops. Within the next five years, we will know whether national governments have successfully acted in global interests, or focused too much on protecting national interests. We may see populist movements force governments to move faster on global issues than they currently intend. We will be closely monitoring climate change development, policies, regulation, opinions nad consequences for energy industries, including power generation, and use over the next five years and beyond.
Clean Energy to replace fossil fuels
What WE CAN DO TO STOP CLIMATE CHANGE?
Energsoft Helps Battery and Energy Storage companies:
1. Decrease battery test cycle times by identifying test issues as soon as they occur.
2. Increase battery reliability and safety by identifying manufacturing issues with real-time.
3. Meet all design specifications with less burden by streamlining internal and external reporting.
4. Secured and highly efficient battery management systems by improving validation at the cell level.
5. Perform device linking to maximize system performance by monitoring the health of battery assets in real time.
6. Determine battery degradation rates, in-use trends and performance to warranty.
7. Accelerate testing of new materials, chemistries and manufacturing processes.
8. Analyze data from different cycling and impedance machines from multiple locations.
9. Perform pre-production tuning and/or commissioning.
10. Reduce need to overbuild energy storage.
Energsoft helps battery and energy storage companies
Ten-Fold growth of solar power and wind
Solar Power and Wind Increase
We do believe, however, that a combination of measures can get us there. One such combination for the decade ahead includes ten-fold growth of solar power increasing to 5 terawatts (TW) and a five-fold increase in wind power to 3TW. Fifty million electrical vehicles (EV's) per year will be needed, requiring a 50-fold rise in batteries and large scale charging infrastructure. We also see the need for: annual investment in the region of $1.5 TRN for the expansion and reinforcement of power grids including ultra-high voltage transmission networks; annual improvements in global energy intensity ( the energy use per unit of output) by 3.5%; increased application of CCS; and low-and zero-carbon hydrogen to heat buildings and industry, fuel transport and capture value from surplus renewables.
Energy Storage Analytics
Energy Storage Today
Due to growing concerns about the environmental impacts of fossil fuels and the capacity and resilience of energy grids around the world, engineers and policymakers are increasingly turning their attention to energy storage solutions. Indeed, energy storage can help address the intermittency of solar and wind power; it can also, in many cases, respond rapidly to large fluctuations in demand, making the grid more responsive and reducing the need to build back up power plants. The effectiveness of an energy storage facility is determined by how quickly it can react to changes in demand, the rate of energy loss in the storage process, its overall energy storage capacity, and how quickly it can be recharged.
Energy storage is not new. Batteries have been used since the early 1800s, and pumped-storage hydropower has been operating in the United States since the 1920s. But the demand for a more dynamic and cleaner grid has led to a significant increase in the construction of new energy storage projects, and to the development of new or better energy storage solutions.
Fossil fuels are the most used form of energy, partly due to their transportability and the practicality of their stored form, which allows generators considerable control over the rate of energy supplied. In contrast, the energy generated by solar and wind is intermittent and reliant on the weather and season. As renewables have become increasingly prominent on the electrical grid, there has been a growing interest in systems that store clean energy
Energy storage can also contribute to meeting electricity demand during peak times, such as on hot summer days when air conditioners are blasting or at nightfall when households turn on their lights and electronics. Electricity becomes more expensive during peak times as power plants have to ramp up production in order to accommodate the increased energy usage. Energy storage allows greater grid flexibility as distributors can buy electricity during off-peak times when energy is cheap and sell it to the grid when it is in greater demand.
As extreme weather exacerbated by climate change continues to devastate U.S. infrastructure, government officials have become increasingly mindful of the importance of grid resilience. Energy storage helps provide resilience since it can serve as a backup energy supply when power plant generation is interrupted. In the case of Puerto Rico, where there are minimal energy storage and grid flexibility, it took approximately a year for electricity to be restored to all residents.
The International Energy Association (IEA) estimates that, in order to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, the world needs 266 GW of energy storage by 2030, up from 176.5 GW in 2017. Under current trends, Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that the global energy storage market will hit that target, and grow quickly to a cumulative 942 GW by 2040 (representing $620 billion in investment over the next two decades).
Renewable Energy vision
Fact Sheet: Energy Storage
In 2017, the United States generated 4 billion megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity, but only had 431 MWh of electricity storage available. Pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) is by far the most popular form of energy storage in the United States, where it accounts for 95 percent of utility-scale energy storage. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), pumped-storage hydropower has increased by 2 gigawatts (GW) in the past 10 years. In 2015, the United States had 22 GW of PSH storage incorporated into the grid. Yet, despite the widespread use of PSH, in the past decade, the focus of technological advancement has been on battery storage.
By December 2017, there were approximately 708 MW of large-scale battery storage operational in the U.S. energy grid. Most of this storage is operated by organizations charged with balancing the power grid, such as Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs). ISOs and RTOs are “independent, federally-regulated non-profit organizations” that control regional electricity pricing and distribution.
PJM, a regional transmission organization located in 13 eastern states (including Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Illinois), has the largest amount of large-scale battery installations, with a storage capacity of 278 MW at the end of 2017. The second-biggest owner of large-scale battery capacity is California’s ISO (CAISO). By the end of 2017, CAISO operated batteries with a total storage capacity of 130MW.
Most of the battery storage projects that ISOs/RTOs develop are for short-term energy storage and are not built to replace the traditional grid. Most of these facilities use lithium-ion batteries, which provide enough energy to shore up the local grid for approximately four hours or less. These facilities are used for grid reliability, to integrate renewables into the grid, and to provide relief to the energy grid during peak hours.
There is also a limited market for small-scale energy storage. While a minor portion of the small-scale storage capacity in the United States is for residential use, most of it is for use in the commercial sector—and most of these commercial projects are located in California.
In the past decade, the cost of energy storage, solar and wind energy have all dramatically decreased, making solutions that pair storage with renewable energy more competitive. In a bidding war for a project by Xcel Energy in Colorado, the median price for energy storage and the wind was $21/MWh, and it was $36/MWh for solar and storage (versus $45/MWh for a similar solar and storage project in 2017). This compares to $18.10/MWh and $29.50/MWh, respectively, for wind and solar solutions without storage, but is still a long way from the $4.80/MWh median price for natural gas. Much of the price decrease is due to the falling costs of lithium-ion batteries; from 2010 to 2016 battery costs for electric vehicles (similar to the technology used for storage) fell 73 percent. A recent GTM Research report estimates that the price of energy storage systems will fall 8 percent annually through 2022.
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